Traders are skeptical of Iran timeline for Strait of Hormuz reopening
Despite reports Iran could return the passageway to normal traffic flows within a month of a peace deal, Kalshi traders thought that was unlikely.
AI Summary
Iran claims it could restore normal traffic flow through the Strait of Hormuz within a month of a peace deal with the U.S., but traders on the prediction market platform Kalshi are skeptical, placing only a 38% chance the strait will return to normal flows by July 1. Traders are more confident about restoration by August 1, assigning 60% odds to that outcome, though these probabilities have declined from over the weekend when a deal announcement seemed more imminent.